Aurora borealis forcast

Aurora borealis forcast

 

The image above is downloaded from the satellite "NOAA POES" and shows the current extent and position of the auroral oval in the northern hemisphere. Here is a short explanation:

The red arrow
In the plot, that looks like a clock hand, points toward the noon meridian (12:00). The statistical pattern depicting the auroral oval is appropriate to the auroral activity level determined from the power flux observed during the most recent polar satellite pass. The power fluxes in the statistical pattern are color coded on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 (=blue) predict no Aurora activity and 10 (=red) indicates strong Aurora. The pattern has been oriented with respect to the underlying geographic map using the current universal time, updated every ten minutes. This presentation provides an estimate of the location, extent, and intensity of aurora on a global basis.

Normalization factor (n)
A normalization factor of less than 2.0 indicates a reasonable level of confidence in the estimate of power. The more the value of n exceeds 2.0, the less confidence should be placed in the estimate of hemispheric power and the activity level.

My experiences
Colorful Aurora usually happens after strong explosions (M- and X-class) on the Sun. The diagram below shows the current activity at the sun. After a M- or X-class blowout it normally takes about 40-50 hours before the particles from the sun hits the Earth's atmosphere and may cause auroras. In the upper left plot you can get a quite accurate overview of where and how strong the aurora is at current time. This Aurora Alert is not always 100% liable, but I find it very useful for my aurora photography.

Ole Jørgen Liodden

 

Sun activity

 

 

Latest image of the sun

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